2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 45¢ at window start → 47¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 45¢ (band 42¢–45¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 8.2× this market's 7-day norm, $35.5k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.6:1 bid, $113.6k/$70.8k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $11.5k, 18.3× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 707 trades / 7d

Book 1.6:1 bid, $113.6k/$70.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 11 Aug 2026, 18:42 UTC: Band breach (upper): 45¢ → 46¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 11 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 46¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 47¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 47¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots