Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 37¢ at window start → 38¢ at close
• VOLUME 2.6× this market's 7-day norm, $466.4k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 bid, $152.3k/$133.7k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $47.7k, 37.3× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 2,300 trades / 7d

Book 1.1:1 bid, $152.3k/$133.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 10 Aug 2026, 13:32 UTC: Band breach (lower): 37¢ → 36¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.05× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 52 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 36¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 38¢, held -1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 38¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots