Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 35¢ at window start → 36¢ at close
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 bid, $2.0k/$1.8k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $291 in 24h

Book 1.1:1 bid, $2.0k/$1.8k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 10 Aug 2026, 13:19 UTC: Band breach (lower): 35¢ → 34¢ (-1.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.07× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 34¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 34¢, held +1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.5pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 36¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots