REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?
Window 10 Aug 2026, 03:22 UTC → 10 Aug 2026, 04:52 UTC
Price at window start 53¢ → at trigger 50¢ → at close 52¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 53¢ at window start → 52¢ at close
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 46¢ (band 39¢–46¢)
band from 156 hourly obs / 6.6d
- BOOK Book 1.8:1 bid, $7.7k/$4.4k within 10¢
- VOLUME 1.1× this market's 7-day norm, $3.6k in 24h
Book 1.8:1 bid, $7.7k/$4.4k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢
Triggers (1)
- 10 Aug 2026, 03:22 UTC: Sustained reprice: 53¢ → 50¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
Context artifact
@FirstSquawk · X: posted 1h 47m before the break
Oil Rises Amid Growing Doubts Over Strait of Hormuz’s Reopening - WSJ
View the post
Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.51× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 8 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 50¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 52¢, held +1.5ptspts
- Peak move: +3.5pts
- Held 29% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: yes
- Price at close: 52¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots