Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.5pts: 31¢ at window start → 32¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 31¢ (band 16¢–31¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 2.5:1 ask, $2.8k/$6.9k within 10¢
• VOLUME $1.3k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
  volume summed from the market's own trade tape

Book 2.5:1 ask, $2.8k/$6.9k within 10¢ · spread 0.5¢

Triggers (1)

• 10 Aug 2026, 09:43 UTC: Band breach (upper): 31¢ → 31¢ (+0.6pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.04× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 32¢, drift +0.2pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 32¢, held +0.7ptspts
• Peak move: +1.4pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 32¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots