Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.5pts: 48¢ at window start → 45¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 41¢ (band 24¢–41¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 2.9× this market's 7-day norm, $35.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.2:1 ask, $4.7k/$5.7k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $267, 1.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 483 trades / 7d

Book 1.2:1 ask, $4.7k/$5.7k within 10¢ · spread 0.2¢

Triggers (1)

• 10 Aug 2026, 07:42 UTC: Sustained reprice: 48¢ → 45¢ (-3.7pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.22× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 19 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 45¢, drift +0.1pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 44¢, held +3.9ptspts
• Peak move: +4.8pts
• Held 73% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 45¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots