US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.0pts: 21¢ at window start → 19¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 23¢ (band 23¢–55¢)
  band from 162 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.3:1 bid, $2.9k/$2.2k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $486, 1.7× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,374 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $23.0k in 24h

Book 1.3:1 bid, $2.9k/$2.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 10 Aug 2026, 16:19 UTC: Sustained reprice: 21¢ → 18¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.09× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 5 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 18¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 19¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 67% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 19¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots