US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 31¢ at window start → 31¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 39¢ (band 39¢–74¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 1.4:1 ask, $2.9k/$4.0k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.6k, 9.4× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,537 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.2× this market's 7-day norm, $51.1k in 24h

Book 1.4:1 ask, $2.9k/$4.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 10 Aug 2026, 13:51 UTC: Sustained reprice: 31¢ → 34¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 10 Aug 2026, 15:09 UTC: Sustained reprice: 34¢ → 31¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.09× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 41 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 34¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 33¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 31¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots