US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.0pts: 36¢ at window start → 34¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 56¢ (band 56¢–74¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.4:1 ask, $3.2k/$4.5k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $40.7k in 24h

Book 1.4:1 ask, $3.2k/$4.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 10 Aug 2026, 03:15 UTC: Sustained reprice: 36¢ → 32¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.2× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 13 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 32¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 34¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 34¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots