US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -5.0pts: 30¢ at window start → 25¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 39¢ (band 39¢–74¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 bid, $2.2k/$2.0k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.1k, 6.5× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,617 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.3× this market's 7-day norm, $54.9k in 24h

Book 1.1:1 bid, $2.2k/$2.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 10 Aug 2026, 16:17 UTC: Sustained reprice: 30¢ → 26¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.11× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 35 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 26¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 25¢, held +5.0ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 25¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots