US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.0pts: 14¢ at window start → 12¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 19¢ (band 19¢–67¢)
  band from 156 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 4.9:1 bid, $14.1k/$2.9k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.4k, 5.5× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 6,234 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.3× this market's 7-day norm, $165.5k in 24h

Book 4.9:1 bid, $14.1k/$2.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 10 Aug 2026, 07:05 UTC: Sustained reprice: 14¢ → 11¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.07× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 83 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 11¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 10¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 40% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 12¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots