UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.5pts: 26¢ at window start → 22¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 26¢ (band 26¢–36¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 7.7× this market's 7-day norm, $5.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 3.3:1 ask, $739/$2.5k within 10¢

Book 3.3:1 ask, $739/$2.5k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 10 Aug 2026, 20:12 UTC: Sustained reprice: 26¢ → 23¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.32× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 23¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 22¢, held +3.5ptspts
• Peak move: +3.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 22¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots