Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +4.5pts: 32¢ at window start → 36¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 31¢ (band 26¢–31¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.6× this market's 7-day norm, $27.6k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.3:1 bid, $3.5k/$1.6k within 10¢

Book 2.3:1 bid, $3.5k/$1.6k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 10 Aug 2026, 15:49 UTC: Sustained reprice: 32¢ → 42¢ (+10.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 10 Aug 2026, 15:54 UTC: Sustained reprice: 42¢ → 36¢ (-6.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 2.1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 20 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 39¢, drift -3.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 34¢, held +2.5ptspts
• Peak move: +13.0pts
• Held 35% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 36¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots