Minnesota Republican Governor nominee?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 39¢ at window start → 36¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 40¢ (band 40¢–85¢)
  band from 161 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 2.1:1 ask, $4.4k/$9.1k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.2× this market's 7-day norm, $26.1k in 24h

Book 2.1:1 ask, $4.4k/$9.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 10 Aug 2026, 21:44 UTC: Sustained reprice: 39¢ → 35¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.08× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 92 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 35¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 35¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 75% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 36¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots