Minnesota Republican Governor nominee?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.0pts: 42¢ at window start → 40¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 41¢ (band 41¢–85¢)
  band from 162 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 3.1:1 ask, $7.6k/$23.8k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.1× this market's 7-day norm, $24.0k in 24h

Book 3.1:1 ask, $7.6k/$23.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 10 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC: Band breach (lower): 42¢ → 40¢ (-2.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.05× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 9 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 40¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 41¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 40¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots