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Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 64¢ at window start → 65¢ at close
• VOLUME 7.9× this market's 7-day norm, $229.7k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.0:1 ask, $260.6k/$263.6k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $267, 1.1× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 2,172 trades / 7d

Book 1.0:1 ask, $260.6k/$263.6k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 10 Aug 2026, 12:12 UTC: Band breach (lower): 64¢ → 62¢ (-2.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 10 Aug 2026, 12:54 UTC: Sustained reprice: 62¢ → 65¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.5× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 74 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 62¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 62¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 65¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots