Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.5pts: 21¢ at window start → 18¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 20¢ (band 20¢–27¢)
  band from 160 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 12.3:1 ask, $628/$7.7k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $5.5k in 24h

Book 12.3:1 ask, $628/$7.7k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 09 Aug 2026, 22:54 UTC: Band breach (lower): 21¢ → 19¢ (-2.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 18¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 18¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 83% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 18¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots