Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 24¢ at window start → 25¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 24¢ (band 21¢–24¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 11.0:1 bid, $140.0k/$12.8k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.1× this market's 7-day norm, $825 in 24h

Book 11.0:1 bid, $140.0k/$12.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 09 Aug 2026, 03:41 UTC: Band breach (upper): 24¢ → 25¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 25¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 25¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 25¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots