Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 24¢ at window start → 25¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 24¢ (band 21¢–24¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 2.3× this market's 7-day norm, $2.8k in 24h
• BOOK Book 9.3:1 bid, $54.9k/$5.9k within 10¢

Book 9.3:1 bid, $54.9k/$5.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 09 Aug 2026, 23:59 UTC: Band breach (upper): 24¢ → 25¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 25¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 25¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 25¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots