Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 36¢ at window start → 36¢ at close
• BOOK Book 5.2:1 ask, $477/$2.5k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.0× this market's 7-day norm, $11 in 24h
  volume from the 22:56 UTC snapshot (no close reading)

Book 5.2:1 ask, $477/$2.5k within 10¢ · spread 3.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 09 Aug 2026, 21:57 UTC: Band breach (lower): 36¢ → 35¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.02× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 35¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 35¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 36¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots