Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 44¢ at window start → 45¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 44¢ (band 39¢–44¢)
  band from 150 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 2.7:1 bid, $8.5k/$3.1k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $3.6k in 24h

Book 2.7:1 bid, $8.5k/$3.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 09 Aug 2026, 01:56 UTC: Band breach (upper): 44¢ → 45¢ (+1.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context artifact

@FirstSquawk · X: posted 11 min before the break

IRAN: STRAIT OF HORMUZ WON’T FULLY REOPEN UNTIL U.S. “CORRECTS ITS BEHAVIOR” Iran’s Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr said the Strait of Hormuz will not fully reopen until the U.S. meets Tehran’s conditions. Iran is demanding, among other things, an end to U.S. military action, withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region, sanctions relief, compensation for war damages and release of frozen Iranian assets.

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Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.3× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 5 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 46¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 45¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 45¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots