Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 79¢ at window start → 79¢ at close
• BOOK Book 7.2:1 bid, $24.1k/$3.3k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $8.7k in 24h

Book 7.2:1 bid, $24.1k/$3.3k within 10¢ · spread 3.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 09 Aug 2026, 05:05 UTC: Band breach (upper): 79¢ → 79¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.09× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 79¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 79¢, held +0.0ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 79¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots