Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 79¢ at window start → 78¢ at close
• BOOK Book 7.1:1 bid, $24.2k/$3.4k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $306, 40.9× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,097 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $8.8k in 24h

Book 7.1:1 bid, $24.2k/$3.4k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 09 Aug 2026, 07:12 UTC: Band breach (upper): 79¢ → 79¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.09× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 79¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 79¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 78¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots