Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.0pts: 78¢ at window start → 81¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 79¢ (band 73¢–79¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 6.6:1 bid, $21.8k/$3.3k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $231, 30.8× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,107 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 0.5× this market's 7-day norm, $5.0k in 24h

Book 6.6:1 bid, $21.8k/$3.3k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (4)

• 09 Aug 2026, 13:13 UTC: Band breach (upper): 78¢ → 80¢ (+2.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 09 Aug 2026, 13:16 UTC: Sustained reprice: 80¢ → 90¢ (+9.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 09 Aug 2026, 13:19 UTC: Sustained reprice: 90¢ → 86¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 09 Aug 2026, 13:22 UTC: Sustained reprice: 86¢ → 83¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.36× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 8 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 90¢, drift +9.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 83¢, held +4.5ptspts
• Peak move: +11.5pts
• Held 26% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 81¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots