Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.9pts: 27¢ at window start → 29¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 27¢ (band 16¢–27¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 1.0:1 bid, $3.2k/$3.2k within 10¢
• VOLUME $513 in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
  volume summed from the market's own trade tape

Book 1.0:1 bid, $3.2k/$3.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.9¢

Triggers (1)

• 09 Aug 2026, 05:46 UTC: Sustained reprice: 27¢ → 30¢ (+3.4pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 30¢, drift +0.1pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 29¢, held +2.5ptspts
• Peak move: +3.9pts
• Held 75% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 29¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots