Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +4.9pts: 36¢ at window start → 41¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 34¢ (band 24¢–34¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 2.2:1 ask, $3.6k/$7.7k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.1× this market's 7-day norm, $12.3k in 24h

Book 2.2:1 ask, $3.6k/$7.7k within 10¢ · spread 0.3¢

Triggers (1)

• 09 Aug 2026, 11:56 UTC: Sustained reprice: 36¢ → 40¢ (+3.7pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.34× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 20 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 40¢, drift +0.3pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 41¢, held +4.8ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 99% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 41¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots