Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.7pts: 53¢ at window start → 52¢ at close
• VOLUME 2.5× this market's 7-day norm, $5.5k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.9:1 ask, $10.7k/$20.3k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $794, 4.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 931 trades / 7d

Book 1.9:1 ask, $10.7k/$20.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.2¢

Triggers (1)

• 09 Aug 2026, 13:37 UTC: Band breach (upper): 53¢ → 53¢ (+0.7pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.23× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 8 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 52¢, drift -0.8pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 52¢, held -0.1ptspts
• Peak move: +0.7pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 52¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots