Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.0pts: 72¢ at window start → 75¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 73¢ (band 66¢–73¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 11.7:1 bid, $21.8k/$1.9k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.4× this market's 7-day norm, $13.8k in 24h

Book 11.7:1 bid, $21.8k/$1.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 09 Aug 2026, 10:08 UTC: Band breach (upper): 72¢ → 77¢ (+5.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.67× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 18 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 77¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 76¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 60% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 75¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots