Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 73¢ at window start → 74¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 73¢ (band 66¢–73¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 13.0:1 bid, $22.3k/$1.7k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $8.9k in 24h

Book 13.0:1 bid, $22.3k/$1.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 09 Aug 2026, 22:29 UTC: Band breach (upper): 73¢ → 74¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.13× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 74¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 74¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 74¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots