US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -6.0pts: 26¢ at window start → 20¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 35¢ (band 35¢–55¢)
  band from 160 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 bid, $2.4k/$2.2k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $520, 2.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,713 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.2× this market's 7-day norm, $30.0k in 24h

Book 1.1:1 bid, $2.4k/$2.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 09 Aug 2026, 17:29 UTC: Sustained reprice: 26¢ → 23¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 09 Aug 2026, 18:38 UTC: Sustained reprice: 23¢ → 20¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.16× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 14 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 23¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 24¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +6.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 20¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots