US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -4.0pts: 60¢ at window start → 56¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 59¢ (band 59¢–74¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 1.9× this market's 7-day norm, $65.6k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.8:1 ask, $2.6k/$4.6k within 10¢

Book 1.8:1 ask, $2.6k/$4.6k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 09 Aug 2026, 06:12 UTC: Band breach (lower): 60¢ → 57¢ (-2.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.13× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 57¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 57¢, held +2.5ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 56¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots