US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -5.0pts: 43¢ at window start → 38¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 59¢ (band 59¢–74¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 bid, $1.7k/$1.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $400, 2.9× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,360 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $40.0k in 24h

Book 1.1:1 bid, $1.7k/$1.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 09 Aug 2026, 21:29 UTC: Sustained reprice: 43¢ → 39¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.22× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 9 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 39¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 39¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 38¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots