US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 59¢ at window start → 59¢ at close
• VOLUME 1.9× this market's 7-day norm, $64.7k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 ask, $5.2k/$7.7k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $570, 5.1× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 940 trades / 7d

Book 1.5:1 ask, $5.2k/$7.7k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 09 Aug 2026, 02:31 UTC: Band breach (lower): 59¢ → 58¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.03× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 39 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 57¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 56¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 59¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots