US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +4.0pts: 55¢ at window start → 59¢ at close
• BOOK Book 1.6:1 bid, $5.7k/$3.6k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $332, 2.9× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,111 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.2× this market's 7-day norm, $59.1k in 24h

Book 1.6:1 bid, $5.7k/$3.6k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 09 Aug 2026, 13:24 UTC: Sustained reprice: 55¢ → 60¢ (+5.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 09 Aug 2026, 13:39 UTC: Band breach (lower): 60¢ → 57¢ (-2.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.32× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 36 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 62¢, drift +2.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 59¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +7.0pts
• Held 57% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 59¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots