US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.3pts: 90¢ at window start → 87¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 90¢ (band 90¢–96¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 8.6:1 ask, $6.7k/$57.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $566, 1.5× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 289 trades / 7d
• VOLUME $11.8k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
  volume summed from the market's own trade tape

Book 8.6:1 ask, $6.7k/$57.5k within 10¢ · spread 0.7¢

Triggers (1)

• 09 Aug 2026, 09:31 UTC: Band breach (lower): 90¢ → 86¢ (-4.3pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.66× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 18 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 86¢, drift +0.1pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 87¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.7pts
• Held 70% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 87¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots