US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -10.0pts: 28¢ at window start → 19¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 34¢ (band 34¢–67¢)
  band from 157 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.3:1 bid, $5.5k/$4.2k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $35.5k, 88.7× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 5,910 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.3× this market's 7-day norm, $165.5k in 24h

Book 1.3:1 bid, $5.5k/$4.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 09 Aug 2026, 14:24 UTC: Sustained reprice: 28¢ → 25¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 09 Aug 2026, 15:32 UTC: Sustained reprice: 25¢ → 20¢ (-5.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.11× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 92 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 25¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 25¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +10.5pts
• Held 95% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 19¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots