US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -6.0pts: 19¢ at window start → 13¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 30¢ (band 30¢–67¢)
  band from 156 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 bid, $4.3k/$4.1k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $4.6k, 11.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 6,038 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.3× this market's 7-day norm, $165.5k in 24h

Book 1.1:1 bid, $4.3k/$4.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 09 Aug 2026, 17:19 UTC: Sustained reprice: 19¢ → 16¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 09 Aug 2026, 18:41 UTC: Sustained reprice: 16¢ → 13¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.08× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 100 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 17¢, drift -1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 17¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +6.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 13¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots