US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.9pts: 86¢ at window start → 85¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 90¢ (band 90¢–96¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 1.8:1 ask, $13.9k/$25.2k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $5.2k, 12.3× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 302 trades / 7d
• VOLUME $18.8k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
  volume summed from the market's own trade tape

Book 1.8:1 ask, $13.9k/$25.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.2¢

Triggers (3)

• 09 Aug 2026, 11:42 UTC: Sustained reprice: 86¢ → 83¢ (-3.3pts), confirmed over 30s
• 09 Aug 2026, 11:48 UTC: Sustained reprice: 83¢ → 78¢ (-4.8pts), confirmed over 30s
• 09 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC: Sustained reprice: 78¢ → 82¢ (+3.8pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.51× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 8 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 83¢, drift +0.1pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 83¢, held +3.5ptspts
• Peak move: +8.1pts
• Held 23% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 85¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots