UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.5pts: 33¢ at window start → 31¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 33¢ (band 33¢–36¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 24.3× this market's 7-day norm, $1.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.5:1 ask, $3.9k/$9.6k within 10¢

Book 2.5:1 ask, $3.9k/$9.6k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 09 Aug 2026, 13:56 UTC: Band breach (lower): 33¢ → 32¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 31¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 31¢, held +2.5ptspts
• Peak move: +2.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 31¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots