Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 23¢ at window start → 23¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 23¢ (band 23¢–30¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 bid, $49.9k/$32.8k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.3k, 1.5× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,396 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $100.6k in 24h

Book 1.5:1 bid, $49.9k/$32.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 09 Aug 2026, 00:24 UTC: Band breach (lower): 23¢ → 23¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.06× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 9 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 23¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 23¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 23¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots