NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 24¢ at window start → 23¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 23¢ (band 23¢–26¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.8:1 ask, $7.7k/$14.1k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.5× this market's 7-day norm, $9.0k in 24h

Book 1.8:1 ask, $7.7k/$14.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 09 Aug 2026, 07:57 UTC: Band breach (lower): 24¢ → 23¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 23¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 23¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 23¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots