REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
Window 09 Aug 2026, 11:11 UTC → 09 Aug 2026, 12:41 UTC
Price at window start 25¢ → at trigger 28¢ → at close 42¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +17.5pts: 25¢ at window start → 42¢ at close
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 31¢ (band 26¢–31¢)
band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
- VOLUME 11.2× this market's 7-day norm, $94.3k in 24h
- BOOK Book 1.4:1 bid, $2.1k/$1.5k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $29.1k, 24.0× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 686 trades / 7d
Book 1.4:1 bid, $2.1k/$1.5k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢
Triggers (12)
- 09 Aug 2026, 11:11 UTC: Sustained reprice: 25¢ → 28¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 09 Aug 2026, 11:16 UTC: Sustained reprice: 28¢ → 33¢ (+5.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 09 Aug 2026, 11:19 UTC: Band breach (upper): 33¢ → 35¢ (+1.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 09 Aug 2026, 11:28 UTC: Sustained reprice: 35¢ → 38¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 09 Aug 2026, 11:37 UTC: Sustained reprice: 38¢ → 41¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 09 Aug 2026, 11:43 UTC: Sustained reprice: 41¢ → 37¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 09 Aug 2026, 11:46 UTC: Sustained reprice: 37¢ → 32¢ (-5.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 09 Aug 2026, 11:54 UTC: Sustained reprice: 32¢ → 38¢ (+6.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 09 Aug 2026, 11:57 UTC: Sustained reprice: 38¢ → 49¢ (+11.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 09 Aug 2026, 12:12 UTC: Sustained reprice: 49¢ → 44¢ (-5.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 09 Aug 2026, 12:16 UTC: Sustained reprice: 44¢ → 39¢ (-5.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 09 Aug 2026, 12:40 UTC: Sustained reprice: 39¢ → 42¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.5× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 94 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 28¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 39¢, held +14.0ptspts
- Peak move: +30.5pts
- Held 57% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
- Gave back half within 60m: no
- Price at close: 42¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots