Minnesota Republican Governor nominee?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 43¢ at window start → 44¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 69¢ (band 69¢–85¢)
  band from 162 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 19.3:1 ask, $669/$12.9k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $360, 1.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 768 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.1× this market's 7-day norm, $24.3k in 24h

Book 19.3:1 ask, $669/$12.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (3)

• 09 Aug 2026, 00:38 UTC: Sustained reprice: 43¢ → 36¢ (-6.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 09 Aug 2026, 00:44 UTC: Sustained reprice: 36¢ → 40¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 09 Aug 2026, 01:01 UTC: Sustained reprice: 40¢ → 44¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.41× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 82 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 36¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 44¢, held -1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +7.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 44¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots