Iran full airspace closure by August 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 12¢ at window start → 9¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 11¢ (band 11¢–23¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.0× this market's 7-day norm, $19.7k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.4:1 bid, $4.5k/$3.3k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $514, 1.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 759 trades / 7d

Book 1.4:1 bid, $4.5k/$3.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 09 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC: Band breach (lower): 12¢ → 11¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 09 Aug 2026, 17:18 UTC: Sustained reprice: 11¢ → 8¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.04× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 14 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 11¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 8¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 75% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 9¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots