Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 48¢ at window start → 47¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 47¢ (band 47¢–63¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 2.0:1 bid, $25.2k/$12.4k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.6× this market's 7-day norm, $2.5k in 24h

Book 2.0:1 bid, $25.2k/$12.4k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 09 Aug 2026, 21:01 UTC: Band breach (lower): 48¢ → 47¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.03× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 47¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 47¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 47¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots