Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 12¢ at window start → 12¢ at close
• BOOK Book 3.7:1 bid, $2.7k/$709 within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $3.0k in 24h

Book 3.7:1 bid, $2.7k/$709 within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 09 Aug 2026, 18:50 UTC: Band breach (upper): 12¢ → 13¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 12¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 12¢, held -0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 12¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots