Clacton by-election winner?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 99¢ at window start → 100¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 99¢ (band 96¢–99¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 279.1× this market's 7-day norm, $31.8k in 24h
• BOOK Book one-sided bid, $62.0k/$0 within 10¢

depth $62,050/$0 within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 09 Aug 2026, 02:34 UTC: Band breach (upper): 99¢ → 100¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 100¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 100¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 100¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots