Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 70¢ at window start → 70¢ at close
• BOOK Book 1.4:1 ask, $61.5k/$85.1k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.7× this market's 7-day norm, $31.9k in 24h

Book 1.4:1 ask, $61.5k/$85.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 08 Aug 2026, 19:58 UTC: Band breach (upper): 70¢ → 70¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.08× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 5 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 70¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 70¢, held +0.0ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 70¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots