Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +4.5pts: 76¢ at window start → 80¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 77¢ (band 73¢–77¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 4.0:1 bid, $16.3k/$4.1k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.4× this market's 7-day norm, $10.1k in 24h

Book 4.0:1 bid, $16.3k/$4.1k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 08 Aug 2026, 03:38 UTC: Band breach (upper): 76¢ → 79¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.86× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 23 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 79¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 78¢, held +2.5ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 90% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 80¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots