Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 79¢ at window start → 80¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 77¢ (band 73¢–77¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 1.8× this market's 7-day norm, $18.2k in 24h
• BOOK Book 4.7:1 bid, $17.7k/$3.7k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $298, 39.7× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,065 trades / 7d

Book 4.7:1 bid, $17.7k/$3.7k within 10¢ · spread 3.0¢

Triggers (3)

• 08 Aug 2026, 14:07 UTC: Sustained reprice: 79¢ → 86¢ (+6.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 08 Aug 2026, 14:10 UTC: Sustained reprice: 86¢ → 83¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 08 Aug 2026, 15:33 UTC: Sustained reprice: 83¢ → 79¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1.86× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 22 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 83¢, drift -3.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 83¢, held +3.5ptspts
• Peak move: +6.5pts
• Held 8% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 80¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots